Phu Dong 2–3 Binh Thuan: Result & Stats

Phu Dong

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Binh Thuan

7/30/2023

V.League 2 · Round 13Sân vận động Ninh Bình

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Phu Dong53%

×Draw23%

Binh Thuan24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Phu DongExpected goals in this matchBinh Thuan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.14

Phu Dong

1.82

Binh Thuan

1.14

Phu Dong creates 60% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 9 away

1.21

creates per match

1.22

1.05

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Phu Dong

1.21

Binh Thuan

1.22

allows per match

Phu Dong

1.05

Binh Thuan

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phu Dong+0.00on par

Binh Thuan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phu Dong ↓

Binh Thuan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Phu Dong or draw

76%

Phu Dong or Binh Thuan

77%

Draw or Binh Thuan

47%

Winning margin

Phu Dong wins by 2+

30%

Binh Thuan wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Phu Dong 1+ goals

84%

Phu Dong 2+ goals

54%

Phu Dong 3+ goals

27%

Binh Thuan 1+ goals

68%

Binh Thuan 2+ goals

32%

Binh Thuan 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Phu Dong (draw refunded)

69%

Binh Thuan (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phu Dong at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Binh Thuan away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phu Dong attack 1.21 + Binh Thuan defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.82

Binh Thuan attack 1.22 + Phu Dong defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Phu Dong scores more

53%

level

23%

Binh Thuan scores more

24%

Phu Dong at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Phu Dong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff