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Binh Thuan vs Phu Dong — V.League 2 2020

Binh Thuan
Binh Thuan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Phu Dong
Phu Dong
6/9/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 8Sân vận động tỉnh Ninh Thuận

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Binh Thuan25%
×Draw23%
Phu Dong51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Thuan
1.18
Phu Dong
1.77

Phu Dong creates 50% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 43 away

creates per match

Binh Thuan
1.33
Phu Dong
1.09

allows per match

Binh Thuan
2.44
Phu Dong
1.02

finishing

Binh Thuan+0.00on par
Phu Dong+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Thuan ↓

Phu Dong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Binh Thuan or draw
49%
Binh Thuan or Phu Dong
77%
Draw or Phu Dong
75%

Winning margin

Binh Thuan wins by 2+
10%
Phu Dong wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Binh Thuan 1+ goals
69%
Binh Thuan 2+ goals
33%
Binh Thuan 3+ goals
12%
Phu Dong 1+ goals
83%
Phu Dong 2+ goals
53%
Phu Dong 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Binh Thuan (draw refunded)
33%
Phu Dong (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Thuan at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Phu Dong away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Thuan attack 1.33 + Phu Dong defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.18

Phu Dong attack 1.09 + Binh Thuan defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Binh Thuan scores more
25%
level
23%
Phu Dong scores more
51%

Phu Dong at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Phu Dong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Binh Thuan 1–0 Phu Dong

Binh Thuan beat Phu Dong 1-0 in V.League 2 on June 9, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động tỉnh Ninh Thuận in Ninh Thuận.