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Phrae United vs Ayutthaya FC — Thai League 2 2018

Phrae United
Phrae United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
4/20/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 33Huaimah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Phrae United46%
×Draw25%
Ayutthaya FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phrae United
1.52
Ayutthaya FC
1.16

Phrae United creates 31% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 101 away

creates per match

Phrae United
1.66
Ayutthaya FC
1.25

allows per match

Phrae United
1.06
Ayutthaya FC
1.38

finishing

Phrae United+0.00on par
Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phrae United ↓

Ayutthaya FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Phrae United or draw
71%
Phrae United or Ayutthaya FC
75%
Draw or Ayutthaya FC
54%

Winning margin

Phrae United wins by 2+
23%
Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Phrae United 1+ goals
78%
Phrae United 2+ goals
45%
Phrae United 3+ goals
20%
Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
69%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
32%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Phrae United (draw refunded)
61%
Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phrae United at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phrae United attack 1.66 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Phrae United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Phrae United scores more
46%
level
25%
Ayutthaya FC scores more
29%

Phrae United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Phrae United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Phrae United 0–0 Ayutthaya FC

Phrae United and Ayutthaya FC drew 0-0 in Thai League 2 on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Huaimah Stadium in Huai Ma.