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Ayutthaya FC vs Phrae United — Thai League 2 2018

Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Phrae United
Phrae United
12/24/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 17Ayutthaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Ayutthaya FC42%
×Draw25%
Phrae United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayutthaya FC
1.48
Phrae United
1.25

Ayutthaya FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 106 away

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.54
Phrae United
1.24

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.26
Phrae United
1.41

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par
Phrae United+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Phrae United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw
68%
Ayutthaya FC or Phrae United
75%
Draw or Phrae United
58%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
21%
Phrae United wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
77%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
43%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
19%
Phrae United 1+ goals
71%
Phrae United 2+ goals
36%
Phrae United 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
57%
Phrae United (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 103 matches

Phrae United away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.54 + Phrae United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Phrae United attack 1.24 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more
42%
level
25%
Phrae United scores more
32%

Ayutthaya FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayutthaya FC vs Phrae United

Ayutthaya FC beat Phrae United 3-1 in Thai League 2 on December 24, 2023.

The match was played at Ayutthaya Stadium in Ayutthaya.