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Phönix Lübeck vs Hansa Rostock II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Phönix Lübeck
Phönix Lübeck
FT
3 – 2
Hansa Rostock II
Hansa Rostock II
7/19/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz an der Travemünder Allee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Phönix Lübeck68%
×Draw17%
Hansa Rostock II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phönix Lübeck
2.70
Hansa Rostock II
1.20

Phönix Lübeck creates 125% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Phönix Lübeck
3.40
Hansa Rostock II
1.60

allows per match

Phönix Lübeck
0.80
Hansa Rostock II
2.00

finishing

Phönix Lübeck+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phönix Lübeck ↓

Hansa Rostock II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Phönix Lübeck or draw
85%
Phönix Lübeck or Hansa Rostock II
83%
Draw or Hansa Rostock II
32%

Winning margin

Phönix Lübeck wins by 2+
47%
Hansa Rostock II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Phönix Lübeck 1+ goals
93%
Phönix Lübeck 2+ goals
75%
Phönix Lübeck 3+ goals
50%
Hansa Rostock II 1+ goals
70%
Hansa Rostock II 2+ goals
34%
Hansa Rostock II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Phönix Lübeck (draw refunded)
82%
Hansa Rostock II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phönix Lübeck at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Hansa Rostock II away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phönix Lübeck attack 3.40 + Hansa Rostock II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.70

Hansa Rostock II attack 1.60 + Phönix Lübeck defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Phönix Lübeck scores more
68%
level
17%
Hansa Rostock II scores more
15%

Phönix Lübeck at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Phönix Lübeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phönix Lübeck vs Hansa Rostock II

Phönix Lübeck beat Hansa Rostock II 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 19, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz an der Travemünder Allee in Lübeck.