Hansa Rostock II 2–1 Phönix Lübeck: Result & Stats

Hansa Rostock II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Phönix Lübeck

1/20/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hansa Rostock II55%

×Draw21%

Phönix Lübeck24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa Rostock IIExpected goals in this matchPhönix Lübeck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.39

Hansa Rostock II

2.19

Phönix Lübeck

1.39

Hansa Rostock II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

2.50

creates per match

1.78

1.00

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Hansa Rostock II

2.50

Phönix Lübeck

1.78

allows per match

Hansa Rostock II

1.00

Phönix Lübeck

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock II+0.00on par

Phönix Lübeck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock II ↓

Phönix Lübeck →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock II or draw

76%

Hansa Rostock II or Phönix Lübeck

79%

Draw or Phönix Lübeck

45%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock II wins by 2+

34%

Phönix Lübeck wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock II 1+ goals

89%

Hansa Rostock II 2+ goals

64%

Hansa Rostock II 3+ goals

37%

Phönix Lübeck 1+ goals

75%

Phönix Lübeck 2+ goals

40%

Phönix Lübeck 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock II (draw refunded)

70%

Phönix Lübeck (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Phönix Lübeck away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock II attack 2.50 + Phönix Lübeck defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.19

Phönix Lübeck attack 1.78 + Hansa Rostock II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hansa Rostock II scores more

55%

level

21%

Phönix Lübeck scores more

24%

Hansa Rostock II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hansa Rostock II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff