Phoenix 0–4 Defence Force: Result & Stats

Phoenix

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Defence Force

S. Noel 90'

K. Goddard 84'

I. Leacock 58'

Justin García 34'

5/18/2025

League #591 · Round 20Ato Boldon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Phoenix17%

×Draw19%

Defence Force65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PhoenixExpected goals in this matchDefence Force

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.37

Phoenix

1.13

Defence Force

2.37

Defence Force creates 110% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 26 away

1.29

creates per match

3.31

1.43

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Phoenix

1.29

Defence Force

3.31

allows per match

Phoenix

1.43

Defence Force

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phoenix+0.00on par

Defence Force+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phoenix ↓

Defence Force →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Phoenix or draw

35%

Phoenix or Defence Force

81%

Draw or Defence Force

83%

Winning margin

Phoenix wins by 2+

6%

Defence Force wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Phoenix 1+ goals

68%

Phoenix 2+ goals

31%

Phoenix 3+ goals

11%

Defence Force 1+ goals

91%

Defence Force 2+ goals

68%

Defence Force 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Phoenix (draw refunded)

21%

Defence Force (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phoenix at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Defence Force away — creates 3.31, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phoenix attack 1.29 + Defence Force defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.13

Defence Force attack 3.31 + Phoenix defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Phoenix scores more

17%

level

19%

Defence Force scores more

65%

Defence Force at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Defence Force will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

58'

84'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff