Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Defence Force vs Phoenix — League #591 2026

Defence Force
Defence Force
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Phoenix
Phoenix
I. Leacock 32'
2/2/2025League #591League #591 · Round 9Ken Cooke Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Defence Force67%
×Draw19%
Phoenix13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defence Force
2.14
Phoenix
0.83

Defence Force creates 158% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 3 away

creates per match

Defence Force
2.61
Phoenix
0.67

allows per match

Defence Force
1.00
Phoenix
1.67

finishing

Defence Force+0.00on par
Phoenix+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defence Force ↓

Phoenix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Defence Force or draw
87%
Defence Force or Phoenix
81%
Draw or Phoenix
33%

Winning margin

Defence Force wins by 2+
43%
Phoenix wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Defence Force 1+ goals
88%
Defence Force 2+ goals
63%
Defence Force 3+ goals
36%
Phoenix 1+ goals
56%
Phoenix 2+ goals
20%
Phoenix 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Defence Force (draw refunded)
83%
Phoenix (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defence Force at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Phoenix away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defence Force attack 2.61 + Phoenix defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.14

Phoenix attack 0.67 + Defence Force defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Defence Force scores more
67%
level
19%
Phoenix scores more
13%

Defence Force at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Defence Force will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
I. Leacock

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #591: Defence Force 1–0 Phoenix

Defence Force beat Phoenix 1-0 in League #591 on February 2, 2025.

Goals: I. Leacock (32').

The match was played at Ken Cooke Ground in Port of Spain.