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Phoenix Rising vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising
Preview
02:30
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
8/30/2026USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Group StageWild Horse Pass Stadium
56%
Phoenix Rising
model favours
56%22%22%

Phoenix Rising score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Phoenix Rising56%
×Draw22%
Indy Eleven22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phoenix Rising
1.88
Indy Eleven
1.08

Phoenix Rising creates 74% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 129 away

creates per match

Phoenix Rising
2.17
Indy Eleven
1.11

allows per match

Phoenix Rising
1.04
Indy Eleven
1.58

finishing

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phoenix Rising ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Phoenix Rising or draw
78%
Phoenix Rising or Indy Eleven
78%
Draw or Indy Eleven
44%

Winning margin

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+
32%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals
85%
Phoenix Rising 2+ goals
56%
Phoenix Rising 3+ goals
29%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
66%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
29%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)
72%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phoenix Rising at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.04 · 135 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phoenix Rising attack 2.17 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.88

Indy Eleven attack 1.11 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Phoenix Rising scores more
56%
level
22%
Indy Eleven scores more
22%

Phoenix Rising at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Phoenix Rising will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 65% of Indy Eleven’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Indy Eleven score first in only 28% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Rising
LLLDL
Eleven
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Phoenix Rising vs Indy Eleven — Match Preview

Phoenix Rising face Indy Eleven on August 30, 2026 in this USL Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Phoenix Rising host Indy Eleven at Wild Horse Pass Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.