Phoenix Rising 1–1 Indy Eleven: Result & Stats

Phoenix Rising

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Indy Eleven

C. Harvey 80'

A. Diz 90+5'

9/21/2023

USL Championship · Round 36Phoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Phoenix Rising56%

×Draw22%

Indy Eleven21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Phoenix RisingExpected goals in this matchIndy Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.07

Phoenix Rising

1.88

Indy Eleven

1.07

Phoenix Rising creates 76% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 128 away

2.18

creates per match

1.09

1.05

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Phoenix Rising

2.18

Indy Eleven

1.09

allows per match

Phoenix Rising

1.05

Indy Eleven

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phoenix Rising ↓

Indy Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Phoenix Rising or draw

79%

Phoenix Rising or Indy Eleven

78%

Draw or Indy Eleven

44%

Winning margin

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+

32%

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals

85%

Phoenix Rising 2+ goals

56%

Phoenix Rising 3+ goals

29%

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

66%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

29%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)

72%

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phoenix Rising at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.05 · 136 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.57 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phoenix Rising attack 2.18 + Indy Eleven defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.88

Indy Eleven attack 1.09 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Phoenix Rising scores more

56%

level

22%

Indy Eleven scores more

21%

Phoenix Rising at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Phoenix Rising will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

H. Uzochokwu

31'

Stefano Pinho

40'

M. Arteaga

58'

D. Formella← H. Uzochukwu

58'

P. Armenakas← F. Varela

61'

J. Vázquez← B. Rebellón

62'

A. Fuenmayor

66'

D. Martínez← H. Robledo

75'

J. Blake

76'

B. Reveno← Stéfano Pinho

80'

C. Harvey↳ D. Trejo

85'

D. King← M. Arteaga

90+2'

J. Hernandez

90+4'

D. Krutzen← C. Harvey

90+5'

A. Diz↳ C. Lindley

Phoenix

Indy

1

Trilk

4

Jérôme

15

⚽

Diz

23

Boudadi

25

▼

Rebellón

8

Blake

6

A

Lindley

10

▼

Robledo

20

Asante

29

▼

13

1

30

3

23

15

▼

Uzochukwu

5

Traore

8

Hernández

10

▼

Varela

67

⚽

▼

Harvey

9

▼

Arteaga

17

A

Trejo

Manager: J. Guerra

58'▲D. Formella←▼H. Uzochukwu

58'▲P. Armenakas←▼F. Varela

85'▲D. King←▼M. Arteaga

90+4'▲D. Krutzen←▼C. Harvey

Phoenix Rising substitutes

29Formella21Armenakas2King4Krutzen14Cuello7Gallardo22Rakovsky

Manager: M. Lowry

61'▲J. Vázquez←▼B. Rebellón

66'▲D. Martínez←▼H. Robledo

76'▲B. Reveno←▼Stéfano Pinho

Indy Eleven substitutes

2Vázquez42Martínez3Reveno46Crawford21Molina7Velásquez22Dambrot

USL Championship: Phoenix Rising 1–1 Indy Eleven

Phoenix Rising and Indy Eleven drew 1-1 in USL Championship on September 21, 2023.

Goals: C. Harvey (80'), A. Diz (90+5').

The match was played at Phoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington in Phoenix, Arizona.

Phoenix Rising vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

USL Championship: Phoenix Rising 1–1 Indy Eleven