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Indy Eleven vs Phoenix Rising — USL Championship 2026

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising
5/25/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 13Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Indy Eleven42%
×Draw25%
Phoenix Rising32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.49
Phoenix Rising
1.27

Indy Eleven creates 17% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 135 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.49
Phoenix Rising
1.41

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.12
Phoenix Rising
1.49

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Phoenix Rising+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Phoenix Rising →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
68%
Indy Eleven or Phoenix Rising
75%
Draw or Phoenix Rising
58%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
21%
Phoenix Rising wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
77%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
44%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
19%
Phoenix Rising 1+ goals
72%
Phoenix Rising 2+ goals
36%
Phoenix Rising 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
57%
Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 134 matches

Phoenix Rising away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.49 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.49

Phoenix Rising attack 1.41 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
42%
level
25%
Phoenix Rising scores more
32%

Indy Eleven at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Indy Eleven 2–1 Phoenix Rising

Indy Eleven beat Phoenix Rising 2-1 in USL Championship on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Michael A. Carroll Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.