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Phoenix Rising vs Fresno FC — USL Championship 2018

Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fresno FC
Fresno FC
4/29/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 12Phoenix Rising Soccer Complex (Scottsdale, Arizona)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Phoenix Rising53%
×Draw24%
Fresno FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phoenix Rising
1.76
Fresno FC
1.09

Phoenix Rising creates 61% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 34 away

creates per match

Phoenix Rising
2.17
Fresno FC
1.15

allows per match

Phoenix Rising
1.04
Fresno FC
1.35

finishing

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par
Fresno FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phoenix Rising ↓

Fresno FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Phoenix Rising or draw
77%
Phoenix Rising or Fresno FC
76%
Draw or Fresno FC
47%

Winning margin

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+
29%
Fresno FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals
83%
Phoenix Rising 2+ goals
52%
Phoenix Rising 3+ goals
26%
Fresno FC 1+ goals
66%
Fresno FC 2+ goals
30%
Fresno FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)
69%
Fresno FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phoenix Rising at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.04 · 135 matches

Fresno FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phoenix Rising attack 2.17 + Fresno FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.76

Fresno FC attack 1.15 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Phoenix Rising scores more
53%
level
24%
Fresno FC scores more
23%

Phoenix Rising at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Phoenix Rising will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phoenix Rising vs Fresno FC

Phoenix Rising and Fresno FC drew 1-1 in USL Championship on April 29, 2018.

The match was played at Phoenix Rising Soccer Complex (Scottsdale, Arizona).