Fresno FC 4–0 Phoenix Rising: Result & Stats

Fresno FC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Phoenix Rising

7/15/2018

USL Championship · Round 32Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fresno FC48%

×Draw24%

Phoenix Rising28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fresno FCExpected goals in this matchPhoenix Rising

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.25

Fresno FC

1.69

Phoenix Rising

1.25

Fresno FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 136 away

1.86

creates per match

1.40

1.11

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Fresno FC

1.86

Phoenix Rising

1.40

allows per match

Fresno FC

1.11

Phoenix Rising

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fresno FC+0.00on par

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fresno FC ↓

Phoenix Rising →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fresno FC or draw

72%

Fresno FC or Phoenix Rising

76%

Draw or Phoenix Rising

52%

Winning margin

Fresno FC wins by 2+

25%

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fresno FC 1+ goals

82%

Fresno FC 2+ goals

50%

Fresno FC 3+ goals

24%

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals

71%

Phoenix Rising 2+ goals

36%

Phoenix Rising 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Fresno FC (draw refunded)

63%

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fresno FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Phoenix Rising away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fresno FC attack 1.86 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.69

Phoenix Rising attack 1.40 + Fresno FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fresno FC scores more

48%

level

24%

Phoenix Rising scores more

28%

Fresno FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fresno FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff