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Phoenix Rising vs Charleston Battery — USL Championship 2026

Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery
6/23/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 19Phoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Phoenix Rising54%
×Draw22%
Charleston Battery23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phoenix Rising
1.89
Charleston Battery
1.15

Phoenix Rising creates 64% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 134 away

creates per match

Phoenix Rising
2.17
Charleston Battery
1.26

allows per match

Phoenix Rising
1.04
Charleston Battery
1.60

finishing

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par
Charleston Battery+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phoenix Rising ↓

Charleston Battery →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Phoenix Rising or draw
77%
Phoenix Rising or Charleston Battery
78%
Draw or Charleston Battery
46%

Winning margin

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+
31%
Charleston Battery wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals
85%
Phoenix Rising 2+ goals
56%
Phoenix Rising 3+ goals
29%
Charleston Battery 1+ goals
68%
Charleston Battery 2+ goals
32%
Charleston Battery 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)
70%
Charleston Battery (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phoenix Rising at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.04 · 135 matches

Charleston Battery away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phoenix Rising attack 2.17 + Charleston Battery defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.89

Charleston Battery attack 1.26 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Phoenix Rising scores more
54%
level
22%
Charleston Battery scores more
23%

Phoenix Rising at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Phoenix Rising will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phoenix Rising vs Charleston Battery

Phoenix Rising and Charleston Battery drew 0-0 in USL Championship on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Phoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington in Phoenix, Arizona.