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Charleston Battery vs Phoenix Rising — USL Championship 2026

Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising
6/21/2025USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 17Patriots Point Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Charleston Battery47%
×Draw24%
Phoenix Rising29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charleston Battery
1.70
Phoenix Rising
1.27

Charleston Battery creates 34% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 136 away

creates per match

Charleston Battery
1.89
Phoenix Rising
1.40

allows per match

Charleston Battery
1.15
Phoenix Rising
1.51

finishing

Charleston Battery+0.00on par
Phoenix Rising+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleston Battery ↓

Phoenix Rising →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Charleston Battery or draw
71%
Charleston Battery or Phoenix Rising
76%
Draw or Phoenix Rising
53%

Winning margin

Charleston Battery wins by 2+
25%
Phoenix Rising wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Charleston Battery 1+ goals
82%
Charleston Battery 2+ goals
51%
Charleston Battery 3+ goals
24%
Phoenix Rising 1+ goals
72%
Phoenix Rising 2+ goals
36%
Phoenix Rising 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Charleston Battery (draw refunded)
62%
Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleston Battery at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 137 matches

Phoenix Rising away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleston Battery attack 1.89 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.70

Phoenix Rising attack 1.40 + Charleston Battery defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Charleston Battery scores more
47%
level
24%
Phoenix Rising scores more
29%

Charleston Battery at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Charleston Battery will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Charleston Battery 4–1 Phoenix Rising

Charleston Battery beat Phoenix Rising 4-1 in USL Championship on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Patriots Point Soccer Complex.