Phoenix Rising 3–3 Birmingham Legion

Phoenix Rising

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Birmingham Legion

8/3/2025

USL Championship · Round 22Wild Horse Pass Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Phoenix Rising53%

×Draw23%

Birmingham Legion25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Phoenix RisingExpected goals in this matchBirmingham Legion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.21

Phoenix Rising

1.87

Birmingham Legion

1.21

Phoenix Rising creates 55% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 119 away

2.17

creates per match

1.39

1.04

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Phoenix Rising

2.17

Birmingham Legion

1.39

allows per match

Phoenix Rising

1.04

Birmingham Legion

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par

Birmingham Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phoenix Rising ↓

Birmingham Legion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Phoenix Rising or draw

75%

Phoenix Rising or Birmingham Legion

77%

Draw or Birmingham Legion

47%

Winning margin

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+

30%

Birmingham Legion wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals

85%

Phoenix Rising 2+ goals

56%

Phoenix Rising 3+ goals

29%

Birmingham Legion 1+ goals

70%

Birmingham Legion 2+ goals

34%

Birmingham Legion 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)

68%

Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phoenix Rising at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.04 · 135 matches

Birmingham Legion away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phoenix Rising attack 2.17 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.87

Birmingham Legion attack 1.39 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Phoenix Rising scores more

53%

level

23%

Birmingham Legion scores more

25%

Phoenix Rising at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Phoenix Rising will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff