Birmingham Legion 1–2 Phoenix Rising

Birmingham Legion

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Phoenix Rising

4/9/2023

USL Championship · Round 6Protective Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Birmingham Legion40%

×Draw26%

Phoenix Rising34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Birmingham LegionExpected goals in this matchPhoenix Rising

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.30

Birmingham Legion

1.42

Phoenix Rising

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 116 home / 136 away

1.33

creates per match

1.40

1.21

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Birmingham Legion

1.33

Phoenix Rising

1.40

allows per match

Birmingham Legion

1.21

Phoenix Rising

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham Legion+0.00on par

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham Legion ↓

Phoenix Rising →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Birmingham Legion or draw

66%

Birmingham Legion or Phoenix Rising

74%

Draw or Phoenix Rising

60%

Winning margin

Birmingham Legion wins by 2+

19%

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Birmingham Legion 1+ goals

76%

Birmingham Legion 2+ goals

41%

Birmingham Legion 3+ goals

17%

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals

73%

Phoenix Rising 2+ goals

37%

Phoenix Rising 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)

54%

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham Legion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

Phoenix Rising away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham Legion attack 1.33 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Phoenix Rising attack 1.40 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Birmingham Legion scores more

40%

level

26%

Phoenix Rising scores more

34%

Birmingham Legion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Birmingham Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff