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Phoenix Rising vs Austin Bold — USL Championship 2018

Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Risingadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Austin Bold
Austin Bold
10/27/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Conference - Quarter-finalsCasino Arizona Field (Scottsdale, Arizona)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Phoenix Rising58%
×Draw22%
Austin Bold20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phoenix Rising
1.98
Austin Bold
1.07

Phoenix Rising creates 85% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 41 away

creates per match

Phoenix Rising
2.17
Austin Bold
1.10

allows per match

Phoenix Rising
1.04
Austin Bold
1.78

finishing

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par
Austin Bold+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phoenix Rising ↓

Austin Bold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Phoenix Rising or draw
80%
Phoenix Rising or Austin Bold
78%
Draw or Austin Bold
42%

Winning margin

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+
35%
Austin Bold wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals
86%
Phoenix Rising 2+ goals
59%
Phoenix Rising 3+ goals
31%
Austin Bold 1+ goals
66%
Austin Bold 2+ goals
29%
Austin Bold 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)
74%
Austin Bold (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phoenix Rising at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.04 · 135 matches

Austin Bold away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.78 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phoenix Rising attack 2.17 + Austin Bold defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.98

Austin Bold attack 1.10 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Phoenix Rising scores more
58%
level
22%
Austin Bold scores more
20%

Phoenix Rising at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Phoenix Rising will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phoenix Rising vs Austin Bold

Phoenix Rising and Austin Bold drew 0-0 in USL Championship on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Casino Arizona Field (Scottsdale, Arizona).