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Austin Bold vs Phoenix Rising — USL Championship 2018

Austin Bold
Austin Bold
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising
4/18/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 11Bold Stadium (Austin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Austin Bold45%
×Draw25%
Phoenix Rising30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austin Bold
1.61
Phoenix Rising
1.27

Austin Bold creates 27% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 136 away

creates per match

Austin Bold
1.71
Phoenix Rising
1.40

allows per match

Austin Bold
1.14
Phoenix Rising
1.51

finishing

Austin Bold+0.00on par
Phoenix Rising+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin Bold ↓

Phoenix Rising →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Austin Bold or draw
70%
Austin Bold or Phoenix Rising
75%
Draw or Phoenix Rising
55%

Winning margin

Austin Bold wins by 2+
23%
Phoenix Rising wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Austin Bold 1+ goals
80%
Austin Bold 2+ goals
48%
Austin Bold 3+ goals
22%
Phoenix Rising 1+ goals
72%
Phoenix Rising 2+ goals
36%
Phoenix Rising 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Austin Bold (draw refunded)
60%
Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin Bold at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

Phoenix Rising away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin Bold attack 1.71 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.61

Phoenix Rising attack 1.40 + Austin Bold defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Austin Bold scores more
45%
level
25%
Phoenix Rising scores more
30%

Austin Bold at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Austin Bold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austin Bold vs Phoenix Rising

Austin Bold beat Phoenix Rising 1-0 in USL Championship on April 18, 2019.

The match was played at Bold Stadium (Austin).