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Pho Hien vs Phú Thọ — V.League 2 2020

Pho Hien
Pho Hien
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
3/12/2022V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 2SVĐ Trung tâm đào tạo trẻ PVF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Pho Hien60%
×Draw23%
Phú Thọ16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pho Hien
1.74
Phú Thọ
0.77

Pho Hien creates 126% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 33 away

creates per match

Pho Hien
1.72
Phú Thọ
0.73

allows per match

Pho Hien
0.82
Phú Thọ
1.76

finishing

Pho Hien+0.00on par
Phú Thọ+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pho Hien ↓

Phú Thọ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pho Hien or draw
84%
Pho Hien or Phú Thọ
77%
Draw or Phú Thọ
40%

Winning margin

Pho Hien wins by 2+
34%
Phú Thọ wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pho Hien 1+ goals
82%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
52%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
25%
Phú Thọ 1+ goals
54%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
18%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pho Hien (draw refunded)
79%
Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pho Hien at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 50 matches

Phú Thọ away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pho Hien attack 1.72 + Phú Thọ defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.74

Phú Thọ attack 0.73 + Pho Hien defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pho Hien scores more
60%
level
23%
Phú Thọ scores more
16%

Pho Hien at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pho Hien vs Phú Thọ

Pho Hien and Phú Thọ drew 1-1 in V.League 2 on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at SVĐ Trung tâm đào tạo trẻ PVF in Liên Nghĩa.