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Pho Hien vs Long An — V.League 2 2020

Pho Hien
Pho Hien
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Long An
Long An
5/19/2024V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 18SVĐ Trung tâm đào tạo trẻ PVF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Pho Hien56%
×Draw25%
Long An20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pho Hien
1.63
Long An
0.85

Pho Hien creates 92% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 62 away

creates per match

Pho Hien
1.72
Long An
0.89

allows per match

Pho Hien
0.82
Long An
1.53

finishing

Pho Hien+0.00on par
Long An+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pho Hien ↓

Long An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pho Hien or draw
80%
Pho Hien or Long An
75%
Draw or Long An
44%

Winning margin

Pho Hien wins by 2+
30%
Long An wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pho Hien 1+ goals
80%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
48%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
22%
Long An 1+ goals
57%
Long An 2+ goals
21%
Long An 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pho Hien (draw refunded)
74%
Long An (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pho Hien at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 50 matches

Long An away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.53 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pho Hien attack 1.72 + Long An defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Long An attack 0.89 + Pho Hien defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pho Hien scores more
56%
level
25%
Long An scores more
20%

Pho Hien at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pho Hien vs Long An

Pho Hien beat Long An 4-1 in V.League 2 on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at SVĐ Trung tâm đào tạo trẻ PVF in Liên Nghĩa.