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Long An vs Pho Hien — V.League 2 2020

Long An
Long An
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pho Hien
Pho Hien
6/30/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 10Sân vận động Long An

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Long An32%
×Draw30%
Pho Hien37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Long An
0.98
Pho Hien
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 52 away

creates per match

Long An
1.33
Pho Hien
1.15

allows per match

Long An
1.00
Pho Hien
0.62

finishing

Long An+0.00on par
Pho Hien+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Long An ↓

Pho Hien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Long An or draw
63%
Long An or Pho Hien
70%
Draw or Pho Hien
68%

Winning margin

Long An wins by 2+
12%
Pho Hien wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Long An 1+ goals
62%
Long An 2+ goals
26%
Long An 3+ goals
8%
Pho Hien 1+ goals
66%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
29%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Long An (draw refunded)
47%
Pho Hien (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Long An at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Pho Hien away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Long An attack 1.33 + Pho Hien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.98

Pho Hien attack 1.15 + Long An defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Long An scores more
32%
level
30%
Pho Hien scores more
37%

Pho Hien at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Long An vs Pho Hien

Long An and Pho Hien drew 1-1 in V.League 2 on June 30, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động Long An in Tan An.