Pho Hien 1–2 Ho Chi Minh: Result & Stats | Cup

Pho Hien

1 – 2

Ho Chi Minh

3/31/2019

Cup · 1st RoundSVĐ Trung tâm đào tạo trẻ PVF (Liên Nghĩa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pho Hien53%

×Draw21%

Ho Chi Minh27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pho HienExpected goals in this matchHo Chi Minh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.50

Pho Hien

2.17

Ho Chi Minh

1.50

Pho Hien creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Pho Hien

2.00

Ho Chi Minh

2.00

allows per match

Pho Hien

1.00

Ho Chi Minh

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pho Hien+0.00on par

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pho Hien ↓

Ho Chi Minh →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Pho Hien or draw

73%

Pho Hien or Ho Chi Minh

79%

Draw or Ho Chi Minh

47%

Winning margin

Pho Hien wins by 2+

32%

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pho Hien 1+ goals

89%

Pho Hien 2+ goals

64%

Pho Hien 3+ goals

36%

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals

78%

Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals

44%

Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Pho Hien (draw refunded)

66%

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pho Hien at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Ho Chi Minh away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pho Hien attack 2.00 + Ho Chi Minh defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Ho Chi Minh attack 2.00 + Pho Hien defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pho Hien scores more

53%

level

21%

Ho Chi Minh scores more

27%

Pho Hien at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff