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Ho Chi Minh vs Pho Hien — V.League 1 2019

Ho Chi Minh
Ho Chi Minh
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pho Hien
Pho Hien
3/15/2026V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 16Thong Nhat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ho Chi Minh51%
×Draw25%
Pho Hien24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ho Chi Minh
1.63
Pho Hien
1.04

Ho Chi Minh creates 57% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh
1.32
Pho Hien
0.93

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh
1.16
Pho Hien
1.93

finishing

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par
Pho Hien+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh ↓

Pho Hien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh or draw
76%
Ho Chi Minh or Pho Hien
75%
Draw or Pho Hien
49%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+
27%
Pho Hien wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals
80%
Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals
48%
Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals
22%
Pho Hien 1+ goals
65%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
28%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)
68%
Pho Hien (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 91 matches

Pho Hien away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.32 + Pho Hien defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.63

Pho Hien attack 0.93 + Ho Chi Minh defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ho Chi Minh scores more
51%
level
25%
Pho Hien scores more
24%

Ho Chi Minh at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ho Chi Minh vs Pho Hien

Ho Chi Minh beat Pho Hien 1-0 in V.League 1 on March 15, 2026.

The match was played at Thong Nhat Stadium in Ho Chi Minh City.