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Pho Hien vs Dong Nai — V.League 2 2020

Pho Hien
Pho Hien
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dong Nai
Dong Nai
Nguyen Van Dung 90+2'
Nguyen Thanh Nhan 64'
Huynh Cong Den 38'
6/21/2025V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 22SVĐ Trung tâm đào tạo trẻ PVF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Pho Hien62%
×Draw24%
Dong Nai14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pho Hien
1.61
Dong Nai
0.61

Pho Hien creates 164% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 20 away

creates per match

Pho Hien
1.72
Dong Nai
0.40

allows per match

Pho Hien
0.82
Dong Nai
1.50

finishing

Pho Hien+0.00on par
Dong Nai+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pho Hien ↓

Dong Nai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Pho Hien or draw
86%
Pho Hien or Dong Nai
76%
Draw or Dong Nai
38%

Winning margin

Pho Hien wins by 2+
34%
Dong Nai wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Pho Hien 1+ goals
80%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
48%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
22%
Dong Nai 1+ goals
46%
Dong Nai 2+ goals
13%
Dong Nai 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Pho Hien (draw refunded)
82%
Dong Nai (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pho Hien at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 50 matches

Dong Nai away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pho Hien attack 1.72 + Dong Nai defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.61

Dong Nai attack 0.40 + Pho Hien defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Pho Hien scores more
62%
level
24%
Dong Nai scores more
14%

Pho Hien at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
Huynh Cong Den
64'
Nguyen Thanh Nhan
90+2'
Nguyen Van Dung

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Pho Hien 3–0 Dong Nai

Pho Hien beat Dong Nai 3-0 in V.League 2 on June 21, 2025.

Goals: Huynh Cong Den (38'), Nguyen Thanh Nhan (64'), Nguyen Van Dung (90+2').

The match was played at SVĐ Trung tâm đào tạo trẻ PVF in Liên Nghĩa.