Dong Nai 0–1 Pho Hien: Result & Stats | V.League 2

Dong Nai

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pho Hien

M. Lo 68'

2/8/2025

V.League 2 · Round 8Sân vận động Đồng Nai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dong Nai29%

×Draw36%

Pho Hien36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dong NaiExpected goals in this matchPho Hien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

0.85

Dong Nai

0.73

Pho Hien

0.85

Pho Hien creates 16% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 52 away

0.85

creates per match

1.15

0.55

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Dong Nai

0.85

Pho Hien

1.15

allows per match

Dong Nai

0.55

Pho Hien

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dong Nai+0.00on par

Pho Hien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dong Nai ↓

Pho Hien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–118%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Dong Nai or draw

64%

Dong Nai or Pho Hien

64%

Draw or Pho Hien

71%

Winning margin

Dong Nai wins by 2+

9%

Pho Hien wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dong Nai 1+ goals

52%

Dong Nai 2+ goals

17%

Dong Nai 3+ goals

4%

Pho Hien 1+ goals

57%

Pho Hien 2+ goals

21%

Pho Hien 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dong Nai (draw refunded)

45%

Pho Hien (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dong Nai at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches

Pho Hien away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dong Nai attack 0.85 + Pho Hien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.73

Pho Hien attack 1.15 + Dong Nai defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dong Nai scores more

29%

level

36%

Pho Hien scores more

36%

Pho Hien at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'

M. Lo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff