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Pho Hien vs Dak Lak — V.League 2 2020

Pho Hien
Pho Hien
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dak Lak
Dak Lak
9/24/2022V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 15SVĐ Trung tâm đào tạo trẻ PVF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Pho Hien52%
×Draw26%
Dak Lak22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pho Hien
1.52
Dak Lak
0.89

Pho Hien creates 71% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 21 away

creates per match

Pho Hien
1.72
Dak Lak
0.95

allows per match

Pho Hien
0.82
Dak Lak
1.33

finishing

Pho Hien+0.00on par
Dak Lak+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pho Hien ↓

Dak Lak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pho Hien or draw
78%
Pho Hien or Dak Lak
74%
Draw or Dak Lak
48%

Winning margin

Pho Hien wins by 2+
27%
Dak Lak wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pho Hien 1+ goals
78%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
45%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
20%
Dak Lak 1+ goals
59%
Dak Lak 2+ goals
22%
Dak Lak 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pho Hien (draw refunded)
70%
Dak Lak (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pho Hien at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 50 matches

Dak Lak away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pho Hien attack 1.72 + Dak Lak defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dak Lak attack 0.95 + Pho Hien defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pho Hien scores more
52%
level
26%
Dak Lak scores more
22%

Pho Hien at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pho Hien 3 – 1 Dak Lak

Pho Hien beat Dak Lak 3-1 in V.League 2 on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at SVĐ Trung tâm đào tạo trẻ PVF in Liên Nghĩa.