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Dak Lak vs Pho Hien — V.League 2 2020

Dak Lak
Dak Lak
FT
0 – 1
Pho Hien
Pho Hien
7/12/2020V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 7Sân vận động Buôn Mê Thuột

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Dak Lak22%
×Draw30%
Pho Hien47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dak Lak
0.72
Pho Hien
1.19

Pho Hien creates 65% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 52 away

creates per match

Dak Lak
0.83
Pho Hien
1.15

allows per match

Dak Lak
1.22
Pho Hien
0.62

finishing

Dak Lak+0.00on par
Pho Hien+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dak Lak ↓

Pho Hien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–118%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dak Lak or draw
53%
Dak Lak or Pho Hien
70%
Draw or Pho Hien
78%

Winning margin

Dak Lak wins by 2+
6%
Pho Hien wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dak Lak 1+ goals
51%
Dak Lak 2+ goals
16%
Dak Lak 3+ goals
4%
Pho Hien 1+ goals
70%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
33%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dak Lak (draw refunded)
32%
Pho Hien (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dak Lak at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Pho Hien away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dak Lak attack 0.83 + Pho Hien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.72

Pho Hien attack 1.15 + Dak Lak defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dak Lak scores more
22%
level
30%
Pho Hien scores more
47%

Pho Hien at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dak Lak 0 – 1 Pho Hien

Pho Hien beat Dak Lak 1-0 in V.League 2 on July 12, 2020.

The match was played at Sân vận động Buôn Mê Thuột in Buôn Ma Thuột.