Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pho Hien vs Can Tho — V.League 2 2020

Pho Hien
Pho Hien
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Can Tho
Can Tho
7/16/2022V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 7SVĐ Trung tâm đào tạo trẻ PVF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Pho Hien57%
×Draw23%
Can Tho20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pho Hien
1.83
Can Tho
0.98

Pho Hien creates 87% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 22 away

creates per match

Pho Hien
1.72
Can Tho
1.14

allows per match

Pho Hien
0.82
Can Tho
1.95

finishing

Pho Hien+0.00on par
Can Tho+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pho Hien ↓

Can Tho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pho Hien or draw
80%
Pho Hien or Can Tho
77%
Draw or Can Tho
43%

Winning margin

Pho Hien wins by 2+
33%
Can Tho wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pho Hien 1+ goals
84%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
54%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
28%
Can Tho 1+ goals
62%
Can Tho 2+ goals
26%
Can Tho 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pho Hien (draw refunded)
74%
Can Tho (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pho Hien at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 50 matches

Can Tho away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pho Hien attack 1.72 + Can Tho defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.83

Can Tho attack 1.14 + Pho Hien defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Pho Hien scores more
57%
level
23%
Can Tho scores more
20%

Pho Hien at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pho Hien 2 – 1 Can Tho

Pho Hien beat Can Tho 2-1 in V.League 2 on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at SVĐ Trung tâm đào tạo trẻ PVF in Liên Nghĩa.