Can Tho 1–4 Pho Hien: Result & Stats | V.League 2

Can Tho

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Pho Hien

9/28/2022

V.League 2 · Round 16Sân vận động Cần Thơ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Can Tho26%

×Draw29%

Pho Hien46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Can ThoExpected goals in this matchPho Hien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.28

Can Tho

0.88

Pho Hien

1.28

Pho Hien creates 45% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 52 away

1.14

creates per match

1.15

1.41

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Can Tho

1.14

Pho Hien

1.15

allows per match

Can Tho

1.41

Pho Hien

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Can Tho+0.00on par

Pho Hien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Can Tho ↓

Pho Hien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Can Tho or draw

54%

Can Tho or Pho Hien

71%

Draw or Pho Hien

74%

Winning margin

Can Tho wins by 2+

9%

Pho Hien wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Can Tho 1+ goals

59%

Can Tho 2+ goals

22%

Can Tho 3+ goals

6%

Pho Hien 1+ goals

72%

Pho Hien 2+ goals

37%

Pho Hien 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Can Tho (draw refunded)

36%

Pho Hien (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Can Tho at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Pho Hien away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Can Tho attack 1.14 + Pho Hien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.88

Pho Hien attack 1.15 + Can Tho defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Can Tho scores more

26%

level

29%

Pho Hien scores more

46%

Pho Hien at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff