Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Phnom Penh Crown vs Macarthur — AFC Cup 2018

Phnom Penh Crown
Phnom Penh Crown
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Macarthur
Macarthur
10/26/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Phnom Penh Crown64%
×Draw20%
Macarthur16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phnom Penh Crown
2.15
Macarthur
0.96

Phnom Penh Crown creates 124% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Phnom Penh Crown
3.00
Macarthur
1.43

allows per match

Phnom Penh Crown
0.50
Macarthur
1.29

finishing

Phnom Penh Crown+0.00on par
Macarthur+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phnom Penh Crown ↓

Macarthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Phnom Penh Crown or draw
84%
Phnom Penh Crown or Macarthur
80%
Draw or Macarthur
36%

Winning margin

Phnom Penh Crown wins by 2+
41%
Macarthur wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Phnom Penh Crown 1+ goals
88%
Phnom Penh Crown 2+ goals
63%
Phnom Penh Crown 3+ goals
36%
Macarthur 1+ goals
62%
Macarthur 2+ goals
25%
Macarthur 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Phnom Penh Crown (draw refunded)
80%
Macarthur (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phnom Penh Crown at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Macarthur away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phnom Penh Crown attack 3.00 + Macarthur defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.15

Macarthur attack 1.43 + Phnom Penh Crown defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Phnom Penh Crown scores more
64%
level
20%
Macarthur scores more
16%

Phnom Penh Crown at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Phnom Penh Crown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phnom Penh Crown vs Macarthur

Phnom Penh Crown beat Macarthur 3-0 in AFC Cup on October 26, 2023.

The match was played at Olympic Stadium in Phnom Penh.