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Macarthur vs Phnom Penh Crown — AFC Cup 2018

Macarthur
Macarthur
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Phnom Penh Crown
Phnom Penh Crown
11/9/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Campbelltown Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Macarthur75%
×Draw13%
Phnom Penh Crown11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macarthur
3.23
Phnom Penh Crown
1.21

Macarthur creates 167% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Macarthur
3.63
Phnom Penh Crown
1.67

allows per match

Macarthur
0.75
Phnom Penh Crown
2.83

finishing

Macarthur+0.00on par
Phnom Penh Crown+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macarthur ↓

Phnom Penh Crown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Macarthur or draw
89%
Macarthur or Phnom Penh Crown
87%
Draw or Phnom Penh Crown
25%

Winning margin

Macarthur wins by 2+
57%
Phnom Penh Crown wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Macarthur 1+ goals
96%
Macarthur 2+ goals
82%
Macarthur 3+ goals
61%
Phnom Penh Crown 1+ goals
70%
Phnom Penh Crown 2+ goals
34%
Phnom Penh Crown 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Macarthur (draw refunded)
87%
Phnom Penh Crown (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macarthur at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Phnom Penh Crown away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macarthur attack 3.63 + Phnom Penh Crown defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.23

Phnom Penh Crown attack 1.67 + Macarthur defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Macarthur scores more
75%
level
13%
Phnom Penh Crown scores more
11%

Macarthur at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Macarthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Macarthur vs Phnom Penh Crown

Macarthur beat Phnom Penh Crown 5-0 in AFC Cup on November 9, 2023.

The match was played at Campbelltown Sports Stadium in Sydney.