Philippines 0–0 Malaysia: Result & Stats

Philippines

FT

0 – 0

Malaysia

3/22/2017

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Rizal Memorial Stadium (Manila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Philippines60%

×Draw20%

Malaysia20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PhilippinesExpected goals in this matchMalaysia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.22

Philippines

2.21

Malaysia

1.22

Philippines creates 81% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

2.43

creates per match

1.15

1.29

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Philippines

2.43

Malaysia

1.15

allows per match

Philippines

1.29

Malaysia

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Philippines+0.00on par

Malaysia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philippines ↓

Malaysia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Philippines or draw

80%

Philippines or Malaysia

80%

Draw or Malaysia

40%

Winning margin

Philippines wins by 2+

37%

Malaysia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Philippines 1+ goals

89%

Philippines 2+ goals

65%

Philippines 3+ goals

38%

Malaysia 1+ goals

70%

Malaysia 2+ goals

34%

Malaysia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Philippines (draw refunded)

75%

Malaysia (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philippines at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Malaysia away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philippines attack 2.43 + Malaysia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Malaysia attack 1.15 + Philippines defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Philippines scores more

60%

level

20%

Malaysia scores more

20%

Philippines at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Philippines will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff