Malaysia 2–0 Philippines: Result & Stats

Malaysia

FT

2 – 0

Philippines

3/23/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 3The National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Malaysia74%

×Draw18%

Philippines8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalaysiaExpected goals in this matchPhilippines

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.51

Malaysia

2.08

Philippines

0.51

Malaysia creates 308% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 10 away

2.27

creates per match

0.40

0.62

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Malaysia

2.27

Philippines

0.40

allows per match

Malaysia

0.62

Philippines

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaysia+0.00on par

Philippines+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaysia ↓

Philippines →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Malaysia or draw

92%

Malaysia or Philippines

82%

Draw or Philippines

26%

Winning margin

Malaysia wins by 2+

49%

Philippines wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Malaysia 1+ goals

87%

Malaysia 2+ goals

61%

Malaysia 3+ goals

34%

Philippines 1+ goals

40%

Philippines 2+ goals

9%

Philippines 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Malaysia (draw refunded)

90%

Philippines (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaysia at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Philippines away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaysia attack 2.27 + Philippines defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.08

Philippines attack 0.40 + Malaysia defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Malaysia scores more

74%

level

18%

Philippines scores more

8%

Malaysia at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Malaysia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff