Philippines U19 vs Indonesia U19 — AFF U19 Championship 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Philippines U194%
Indonesia U1987%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Indonesia U19 creates 460% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over72
- Under28
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Philippines U19 ↓
Most likely 0–3 (13%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Philippines U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches
Indonesia U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Philippines U19 attack 1.00 + Indonesia U19 defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.58
Indonesia U19 attack 2.00 + Philippines U19 defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 87%?"
Indonesia U19 at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 87% does not mean "Indonesia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Philippines U19 host Indonesia U19 on Friday, 8 July 2022 at 13:00. The match is part of the AFF U19 Championship 2022/2023 season.
Match Recap: Philippines U19 vs Indonesia U19
Indonesia U19 beat Philippines U19 5-1 in AFF U19 Championship on July 8, 2022.
The match was played at Stadion Patriot in Bekasi.