Indonesia U19 6–0 Philippines U19: Result & Stats

Indonesia U19

FT

6 – 0

Philippines U19

7/17/2024

AFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 1Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Indonesia U1980%

×Draw13%

Philippines U197%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Indonesia U19Expected goals in this matchPhilippines U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

0.78

Indonesia U19

2.92

Philippines U19

0.78

Indonesia U19 creates 274% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

3.33

creates per match

1.00

0.56

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Indonesia U19

3.33

Philippines U19

1.00

allows per match

Indonesia U19

0.56

Philippines U19

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Indonesia U19+0.00on par

Philippines U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indonesia U19 ↓

Philippines U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Indonesia U19 or draw

93%

Indonesia U19 or Philippines U19

87%

Draw or Philippines U19

20%

Winning margin

Indonesia U19 wins by 2+

60%

Philippines U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Indonesia U19 1+ goals

94%

Indonesia U19 2+ goals

78%

Indonesia U19 3+ goals

55%

Philippines U19 1+ goals

54%

Philippines U19 2+ goals

18%

Philippines U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Indonesia U19 (draw refunded)

92%

Philippines U19 (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indonesia U19 at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Philippines U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indonesia U19 attack 3.33 + Philippines U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.92

Philippines U19 attack 1.00 + Indonesia U19 defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Indonesia U19 scores more

80%

level

13%

Philippines U19 scores more

7%

Indonesia U19 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Indonesia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff