Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Philadelphia Union vs Deportivo Saprissa — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Unionadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Saprissa
Deportivo Saprissa
4/15/2021CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Subaru Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Philadelphia Union78%
×Draw15%
Deportivo Saprissa7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union
2.33
Deportivo Saprissa
0.53

Philadelphia Union creates 340% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union
2.00
Deportivo Saprissa
0.50

allows per match

Philadelphia Union
0.56
Deportivo Saprissa
2.67

finishing

Philadelphia Union+0.00on par
Deportivo Saprissa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union ↓

Deportivo Saprissa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union or draw
93%
Philadelphia Union or Deportivo Saprissa
85%
Draw or Deportivo Saprissa
22%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union wins by 2+
54%
Deportivo Saprissa wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union 1+ goals
90%
Philadelphia Union 2+ goals
67%
Philadelphia Union 3+ goals
41%
Deportivo Saprissa 1+ goals
41%
Deportivo Saprissa 2+ goals
10%
Deportivo Saprissa 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)
92%
Deportivo Saprissa (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Deportivo Saprissa away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union attack 2.00 + Deportivo Saprissa defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Deportivo Saprissa attack 0.50 + Philadelphia Union defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Philadelphia Union scores more
78%
level
15%
Deportivo Saprissa scores more
7%

Philadelphia Union at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Philadelphia Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONCACAF Champions League: Philadelphia Union 4–0 Deportivo Saprissa

Philadelphia Union beat Deportivo Saprissa 4-0 in CONCACAF Champions League on April 15, 2021.

The match was played at Subaru Park in Chester, Pennsylvania.