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Deportivo Saprissa vs Philadelphia Union — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

Deportivo Saprissa
Deportivo Saprissa
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union
2/21/2024CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · 1st RoundEstadio Ricardo Saprissa Aymá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Deportivo Saprissa34%
×Draw23%
Philadelphia Union43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Saprissa
1.52
Philadelphia Union
1.75

Philadelphia Union creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Deportivo Saprissa
1.43
Philadelphia Union
1.50

allows per match

Deportivo Saprissa
2.00
Philadelphia Union
1.60

finishing

Deportivo Saprissa+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Saprissa ↓

Philadelphia Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Deportivo Saprissa or draw
57%
Deportivo Saprissa or Philadelphia Union
77%
Draw or Philadelphia Union
66%

Winning margin

Deportivo Saprissa wins by 2+
16%
Philadelphia Union wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Deportivo Saprissa 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Saprissa 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo Saprissa 3+ goals
20%
Philadelphia Union 1+ goals
83%
Philadelphia Union 2+ goals
52%
Philadelphia Union 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Saprissa (draw refunded)
44%
Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Saprissa at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Philadelphia Union away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Saprissa attack 1.43 + Philadelphia Union defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Philadelphia Union attack 1.50 + Deportivo Saprissa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Saprissa scores more
34%
level
23%
Philadelphia Union scores more
43%

Philadelphia Union at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Philadelphia Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONCACAF Champions League: Deportivo Saprissa 2–3 Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia Union beat Deportivo Saprissa 3-2 in CONCACAF Champions League on February 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ricardo Saprissa Aymá in San José.