Philadelphia Union 0–0 CF Pachuca: Result & Stats

Philadelphia Union

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CF Pachuca

3/6/2024

CONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Subaru Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Philadelphia Union38%

×Draw29%

CF Pachuca33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Philadelphia UnionExpected goals in this matchCF Pachuca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.03

Philadelphia Union

1.13

CF Pachuca

1.03

Philadelphia Union creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

1.50

0.56

allows per match

0.25

creates per match

Philadelphia Union

2.00

CF Pachuca

1.50

allows per match

Philadelphia Union

0.56

CF Pachuca

0.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Philadelphia Union+0.00on par

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union ↓

CF Pachuca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union or draw

67%

Philadelphia Union or CF Pachuca

71%

Draw or CF Pachuca

62%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union wins by 2+

16%

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union 1+ goals

68%

Philadelphia Union 2+ goals

31%

Philadelphia Union 3+ goals

11%

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

64%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

28%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)

54%

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union attack 2.00 + CF Pachuca defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

CF Pachuca attack 1.50 + Philadelphia Union defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Philadelphia Union scores more

38%

level

29%

CF Pachuca scores more

33%

Philadelphia Union at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Philadelphia Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

S. Barreto

CF Pachuca · D

7.9

Match Events

45+2'

Pedro PedrazaPenalty cancelled

47'

Gustavo Cabral

61'

Olivier Mbaizo

69'

A. Domínguez← M. Rodríguez

74'

J. Bueno← A. Bedoya

79'

R. López← L. Rodríguez

80'

E. Montiel← É. Sánchez

87'

M. Anderson← Q. Sullivan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PhiladelphiaCF

Overview

51%Possession49%

5Total Shots18

1Corners6

14Fouls17

Shots

5Total Shots18

3On Target3

1Off Target8

1Blocked7

4Inside Box11

1Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

454Total Passes435

357Accurate Passes347

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1