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CF Pachuca vs Philadelphia Union — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

CF Pachuca
CF Pachucaadvanced
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union
A. Bautista 85'
O. Idrissi 63'
N. Deossa 57'
S. Rondón 53', 45+6', 7' (pen)
3/13/2024CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CF Pachuca63%
×Draw20%
Philadelphia Union17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
2.20
Philadelphia Union
1.05

CF Pachuca creates 110% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
2.80
Philadelphia Union
1.50

allows per match

CF Pachuca
0.60
Philadelphia Union
1.60

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Philadelphia Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
83%
CF Pachuca or Philadelphia Union
80%
Draw or Philadelphia Union
37%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
40%
Philadelphia Union wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
89%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
64%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
37%
Philadelphia Union 1+ goals
65%
Philadelphia Union 2+ goals
28%
Philadelphia Union 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
79%
Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Philadelphia Union away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 2.80 + Philadelphia Union defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

Philadelphia Union attack 1.50 + CF Pachuca defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
63%
level
20%
Philadelphia Union scores more
17%

CF Pachuca at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
O. IdrissiCF PachucaCF Pachuca · M
9.7

Match Events

5'
Miguel RodriguezPenalty confirmed
7'
S. RondónPenalty
24'
Pedro Pedraza
45+6'
S. Rondón↳ É. Sánchez
46'
J. Carranza← J. Martínez
53'
S. Rondón↳ M. Rodríguez
57'
J. Bueno← A. Bedoya
57'
M. Anderson← M. Uhre
57'
N. Deossa↳ É. Sánchez
63'
O. Idrissi↳ S. Rondón
69'
A. Domínguez← M. Rodríguez
69'
E. Montiel← P. Pedraza
69'
J. Elliott← D. Gazdag
69'
O. Mbaïzo← N. Harriel
74'
Damion Lowe
76'
Erick Sánchez
78'
A. Bautista← É. Sánchez
78'
I. Luna← N. Deossa
81'
S. Aguayo← S. Rondón
85'
A. Bautista↳ O. Idrissi

Possession

58%CF

Shots

20CF

Pass accuracy

54%CF

Statistics

CFPhiladelphia
Overview
58%Possession42%
20Total Shots5
4Corners2
9Fouls12
Shots
20Total Shots5
11On Target2
6Off Target3
3Blocked0
11Inside Box3
9Outside Box2
Passing
58%Possession42%
456Total Passes323
399Accurate Passes241
88%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: CF Pachuca vs Philadelphia Union

CF Pachuca beat Philadelphia Union 6-0 in CONCACAF Champions League on March 13, 2024.

Goals: S. Rondón (7' pen, 45+6', 53'), N. Deossa (57'), O. Idrissi (63'), A. Bautista (85').

CF Pachuca controlled possession (58%) and registered 20 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.