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Philadelphia Union II vs Penn — USL Championship 2018

Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Penn
Penn
9/2/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 45Goodman Stadium (Bethlehem, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Philadelphia Union II39%
×Draw25%
Penn36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union II
1.50
Penn
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 17 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.64
Penn
1.12

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.71
Penn
1.35

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par
Penn+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Penn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw
64%
Philadelphia Union II or Penn
75%
Draw or Penn
61%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
19%
Penn wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
78%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
44%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
19%
Penn 1+ goals
76%
Penn 2+ goals
41%
Penn 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
52%
Penn (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 42 matches

Penn away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.64 + Penn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Penn attack 1.12 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more
39%
level
25%
Penn scores more
36%

Philadelphia Union II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Philadelphia Union II vs Penn

Penn beat Philadelphia Union II 3-1 in USL Championship on September 2, 2018.

The match was played at Goodman Stadium (Bethlehem, Pennsylvania).