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Penn vs Philadelphia Union II — USL Championship 2018

Penn
Penn
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
7/6/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 29FNB FIELD (Harrisburg, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Penn45%
×Draw24%
Philadelphia Union II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penn
1.66
Philadelphia Union II
1.35

Penn creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 43 away

creates per match

Penn
1.12
Philadelphia Union II
1.30

allows per match

Penn
1.41
Philadelphia Union II
2.19

finishing

Penn+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penn ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Penn or draw
69%
Penn or Philadelphia Union II
76%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
55%

Winning margin

Penn wins by 2+
23%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Penn 1+ goals
81%
Penn 2+ goals
49%
Penn 3+ goals
23%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
74%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
39%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Penn (draw refunded)
59%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penn at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penn attack 1.12 + Philadelphia Union II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.66

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.30 + Penn defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Penn scores more
45%
level
24%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
31%

Penn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Penn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Penn 3–2 Philadelphia Union II

Penn beat Philadelphia Union II 3-2 in USL Championship on July 6, 2018.

The match was played at FNB FIELD (Harrisburg, Pennsylvania).