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Philadelphia Union II vs North Carolina — USL Championship 2018

Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
North Carolina
North Carolina
3/16/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 4Talen Energy Stadium (Chester, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Philadelphia Union II38%
×Draw24%
North Carolina37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union II
1.51
North Carolina
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 74 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.64
North Carolina
1.24

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.71
North Carolina
1.39

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par
North Carolina+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

North Carolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw
63%
Philadelphia Union II or North Carolina
76%
Draw or North Carolina
62%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
19%
North Carolina wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
78%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
44%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
19%
North Carolina 1+ goals
77%
North Carolina 2+ goals
43%
North Carolina 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
51%
North Carolina (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 42 matches

North Carolina away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.64 + North Carolina defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.51

North Carolina attack 1.24 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more
38%
level
24%
North Carolina scores more
37%

Philadelphia Union II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Philadelphia Union II vs North Carolina

North Carolina beat Philadelphia Union II 1-0 in USL Championship on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Talen Energy Stadium (Chester, Pennsylvania).