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North Carolina vs Philadelphia Union II — USL Championship 2018

North Carolina
North Carolina
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
9/7/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 48Sahlen's Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, North Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

North Carolina54%
×Draw22%
Philadelphia Union II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina
2.01
Philadelphia Union II
1.27

North Carolina creates 58% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 43 away

creates per match

North Carolina
1.83
Philadelphia Union II
1.30

allows per match

North Carolina
1.23
Philadelphia Union II
2.19

finishing

North Carolina+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

North Carolina or draw
76%
North Carolina or Philadelphia Union II
78%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
46%

Winning margin

North Carolina wins by 2+
32%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

North Carolina 1+ goals
87%
North Carolina 2+ goals
59%
North Carolina 3+ goals
32%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
72%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
36%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

North Carolina (draw refunded)
69%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina attack 1.83 + Philadelphia Union II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.01

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.30 + North Carolina defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

North Carolina scores more
54%
level
22%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
24%

North Carolina at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "North Carolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: North Carolina 3–3 Philadelphia Union II

North Carolina and Philadelphia Union II drew 3-3 in USL Championship on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Sahlen's Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, North Carolina).