Philadelphia Union II 0–3 Indy Eleven

Philadelphia Union II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Indy Eleven

4/20/2019

USL Championship · Round 12Talen Energy Stadium (Chester, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Philadelphia Union II42%

×Draw24%

Indy Eleven34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Philadelphia Union IIExpected goals in this matchIndy Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.42

Philadelphia Union II

1.61

Indy Eleven

1.42

Philadelphia Union II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 131 away

1.64

creates per match

1.13

1.71

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II

1.64

Indy Eleven

1.13

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II

1.71

Indy Eleven

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Indy Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw

66%

Philadelphia Union II or Indy Eleven

76%

Draw or Indy Eleven

58%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+

21%

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals

80%

Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals

48%

Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals

22%

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

76%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

41%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)

55%

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 42 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.58 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.64 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Indy Eleven attack 1.13 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more

42%

level

24%

Indy Eleven scores more

34%

Philadelphia Union II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff