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Indy Eleven vs Philadelphia Union II — USL Championship 2018

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
10/6/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 54Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Indy Eleven52%
×Draw23%
Philadelphia Union II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.84
Philadelphia Union II
1.21

Indy Eleven creates 52% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 43 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.49
Philadelphia Union II
1.30

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.12
Philadelphia Union II
2.19

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
75%
Indy Eleven or Philadelphia Union II
77%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
48%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
29%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
84%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
55%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
28%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
70%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
34%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
67%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 135 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Philadelphia Union II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.84

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.30 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
52%
level
23%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
25%

Indy Eleven at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Indy Eleven vs Philadelphia Union II

Indy Eleven and Philadelphia Union II drew 1-1 in USL Championship on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana).