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Philadelphia Union II vs Charleston Battery — USL Championship 2018

Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery
4/13/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 10Talen Energy Stadium (Chester, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Philadelphia Union II41%
×Draw24%
Charleston Battery35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union II
1.62
Charleston Battery
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 134 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.64
Charleston Battery
1.26

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.71
Charleston Battery
1.60

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par
Charleston Battery+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Charleston Battery →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw
65%
Philadelphia Union II or Charleston Battery
76%
Draw or Charleston Battery
59%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
21%
Charleston Battery wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
80%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
48%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
22%
Charleston Battery 1+ goals
77%
Charleston Battery 2+ goals
43%
Charleston Battery 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
54%
Charleston Battery (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 42 matches

Charleston Battery away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.64 + Charleston Battery defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.62

Charleston Battery attack 1.26 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more
41%
level
24%
Charleston Battery scores more
35%

Philadelphia Union II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Philadelphia Union II 3–1 Charleston Battery

Philadelphia Union II beat Charleston Battery 3-1 in USL Championship on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Talen Energy Stadium (Chester, Pennsylvania).