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Charleston Battery vs Philadelphia Union II — USL Championship 2018

Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
5/12/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 15MUSC Health Stadium (Charleston, South Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Charleston Battery56%
×Draw21%
Philadelphia Union II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charleston Battery
2.04
Philadelphia Union II
1.23

Charleston Battery creates 66% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 43 away

creates per match

Charleston Battery
1.89
Philadelphia Union II
1.30

allows per match

Charleston Battery
1.15
Philadelphia Union II
2.19

finishing

Charleston Battery+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleston Battery ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Charleston Battery or draw
77%
Charleston Battery or Philadelphia Union II
79%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
44%

Winning margin

Charleston Battery wins by 2+
33%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Charleston Battery 1+ goals
87%
Charleston Battery 2+ goals
60%
Charleston Battery 3+ goals
33%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
71%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
35%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Charleston Battery (draw refunded)
71%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleston Battery at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 137 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleston Battery attack 1.89 + Philadelphia Union II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.04

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.30 + Charleston Battery defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Charleston Battery scores more
56%
level
21%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
23%

Charleston Battery at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Charleston Battery will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Charleston Battery 2 – 1 Philadelphia Union II

Charleston Battery beat Philadelphia Union II 2-1 in USL Championship on May 12, 2018.

The match was played at MUSC Health Stadium (Charleston, South Carolina).