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Philadelphia Union II vs Carolina Core — MLS Next Pro 2022

Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Carolina Core
Carolina Core
4/12/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageSubaru Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Philadelphia Union II54%
×Draw21%
Carolina Core24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union II
2.09
Carolina Core
1.34

Philadelphia Union II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 26 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II
2.00
Carolina Core
1.27

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.42
Carolina Core
2.19

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par
Carolina Core+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Carolina Core →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw
76%
Philadelphia Union II or Carolina Core
79%
Draw or Carolina Core
46%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
32%
Carolina Core wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
88%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
62%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
34%
Carolina Core 1+ goals
74%
Carolina Core 2+ goals
39%
Carolina Core 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
69%
Carolina Core (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

Carolina Core away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 2.00 + Carolina Core defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.09

Carolina Core attack 1.27 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more
54%
level
21%
Carolina Core scores more
24%

Philadelphia Union II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Philadelphia Union II vs Carolina Core

Philadelphia Union II beat Carolina Core 4-1 in MLS Next Pro on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Subaru Park.