Carolina Core 3–2 Philadelphia Union II

Carolina Core

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Philadelphia Union II

7/30/2025

MLS Next Pro · Round 27Truist Point

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Carolina Core36%

×Draw23%

Philadelphia Union II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carolina CoreExpected goals in this matchPhiladelphia Union II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.77

Carolina Core

1.64

Philadelphia Union II

1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 56 away

1.66

creates per match

1.95

1.59

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Carolina Core

1.66

Philadelphia Union II

1.95

allows per match

Carolina Core

1.59

Philadelphia Union II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carolina Core+0.00on par

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carolina Core ↓

Philadelphia Union II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Carolina Core or draw

59%

Carolina Core or Philadelphia Union II

77%

Draw or Philadelphia Union II

64%

Winning margin

Carolina Core wins by 2+

18%

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Carolina Core 1+ goals

81%

Carolina Core 2+ goals

49%

Carolina Core 3+ goals

23%

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals

83%

Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals

53%

Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Carolina Core (draw refunded)

47%

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carolina Core at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carolina Core attack 1.66 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.64

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.95 + Carolina Core defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Carolina Core scores more

36%

level

23%

Philadelphia Union II scores more

41%

Philadelphia Union II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff